Ireland needs to shift gears on its transport emissions
To keep transport emissions on track in the first carbon budget, Ireland would need to take every car, van, lorry, and bus off the road for the rest of the year – how can we change lanes to do better in the second carbon budget?
Off track
Transport is the largest source of energy-related emissions in Ireland, and the second largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, after agriculture. Despite significant efforts to decarbonise the sector, recent analysis from SEAI’s Energy Statistics Team shows that Ireland is off track to hit its transport sectoral emissions ceiling by as much as 4 MtCO₂eq in the first carbon budget period (2021-2025).
To put that into perspective – Ireland would need to take every car, van, lorry, and bus off the road for the next four-and-a-half months to stay within our allocated transport emissions budget. That’s how far off track we are in the first carbon budget.
Just a spoonful of sugar
SEAI's analysis shows that national transport emissions have remained essentially unchanged over the past three years. This stagnation in emissions comes despite record levels of biofuel blending into our petrol and diesel, and a surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption. So, what’s going wrong?
The crux is that although we now have cleaner fuel, we're using more of it. You can think of it like this - Ireland has switched from taking two sugars in its tea to just one, aiming to be a bit healthier. But has started drinking twice as much tea as before. So, in the end, it's still consuming the same amount of sugar, even though there’s less per cup.
That simple analogy equating fossil fuels to sugar in tea is far from perfect, but it gets to the key issue – we’ve been steadily improving the quality of our transport fuels through increased biofuel blending and EV adoption, but we also need to reduce the quantity of transport fuels we're using overall. We need to see the right trends in both the quality and quantity of transport fuels to meet our emission obligations.
Avoid Shift Improve
Ireland’s Climate Action Plan already outlines a clear Avoid–Shift–Improve strategy to tackle transport emissions, including a range of positive actions:
Avoid - Reduce the need to travel
- Encourage remote work options to reduce the need for commuting
- Develop communities where shopping, work, and leisure are accessible within a 15-minute walk or cycle
- Congestion charges and parking management to incentivise alternatives to car use
Shift - Move to more sustainable modes of travel
- Invest in and improve public transport systems to make them more attractive compared to private cars
- Expand and enhance cycling and walking infrastructure
- Cycle-to-work schemes and subsidies for public transport
Improve - Make existing transport modes cleaner
- Incentivise the purchase of electric vehicles, and expand charging infrastructure
- Increase biofuel blending and invest in alternative fuels and technologies for transport
- Encourage the use of more fuel-efficient vehicles and promote energy-efficient technologies
SEAI's recent analysis points to progress in the Improve strand of this strategy, with record levels of biofuel blending and EV adoption. But if we are to meet our 2030 climate targets, then we need to see more progress and actions in the Avoid and Shift strands, too.
So, what can you do to help?
The key point to understand and address is that Ireland’s transport emissions challenge is not just about creating cleaner fuels or increasing the number of EVs on the road – it’s about fundamentally rethinking how we move and approach travel.
Only with joined-up thinking, and strong progress across the full Avoid-Shift-Improve strategy, can get transport emissions back on track in our second carbon budget (2026-2030).
Whether you're a policymaker, planner, business leader, or commuter, here are some useful resources to help support the transport transition:
