Ireland now has an integrated solar, wind and wave energy forecasting system

The background

With the majority of renewable energy in Ireland being weather-dependent (wind and solar), the aim of this research project was to improve forecasting capabilities to benefit effective renewable energy usage. 

The current weather forecast model used by Met Éireann is the Harmonie-Arome model, which provides regional atmospheric data such as temperature, humidity and wind direction and speed. 

When forecasting agencies compile information for a global weather forecast, they use a combination of climate models referred to as coupled global circulation models (CGCMs) to enable more accurate regional weather forecasts. 

The project

The Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) in University of Galway led this project focused on creating an integrated solar, wind and wave energy forecasting system for Ireland. It was co-funded by the Marine Institute and Met Éireann. 

At the Marine Institute, the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model is used for forecasting wave parameters. To calculate wave boundaries, this model uses the WaveWatch 3 framework. 

The Marine Institute also uses the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) to forecast ocean state parameters such as ocean temperature, salinity, sea level and ocean currents. These models (ocean, atmosphere and wave) are run independently each day with different initial and boundary conditions. 

The research project aimed to develop a coupled forecasting model that uses Harmonie-Arome (atmosphere), WaveWatch 3 (wave) and ROMS (ocean) in Ireland. 

To do this, an Oasis3-MCT coupler was used, which allows synchronised exchanges of coupling information between numerical codes representing different components of the climate system. 

These coupled forecasting models are normally more accurate and efficient but have large computing requirements. 

The results and benefits

The WaveWatch 3 framework is now running operationally on the Met Éireann high-performance computing server. 

A two-way coupled model of Harmonie-Arome and WaveWatch 3 has been successfully implemented to predict wave parameters and winds over Ireland and the surrounding ocean, while the ROMS standalone ocean model has been tested for ocean state forecasting. This refers to the process of predicting the physical conditions of the ocean over time

This coupled (atmosphere-wave) forecasting system is the first of its kind for Ireland and will have significant implications for renewable energy applications by providing improved weather forecasts and an integrated solar, wind (onshore and offshore) and wave energy forecasting system. 

The coupled model will result in better forecasts for weather and ocean state, and in turn, for renewable energy forecasts on the desired time scales and heights. 

The results were shared and communicated with the EU community including Met Norway, KNMI-Netherlands, SMHI-Sweden, ECMWF-UK and Meteo France. 

Decision making during high weather events such as storms have been improved.