National Energy Projections
Ireland’s National Energy Projections explores future trends for energy use in Ireland and how we are likely to perform against our national and EU climate and energy targets.
Overview
This report presents the main findings of SEAI’s latest National Energy Projections. These are the result of the 2025 national energy and climate modelling cycle. The National Energy Projections examine future energy use in Ireland under different scenarios and account for factors such as economic growth and the anticipated impact of Government energy policies.
SEAI delivers the National Energy Projections annually, in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). SEAI’s National Energy Projections are modelled using the Irish Government’s National Energy Modelling Framework (NEMF) which is developed and maintained by SEAI. The SEAI National Energy Projections are used to plan and assess policies and measures to achieve Ireland’s national and EU energy and climate obligations and targets. The NEMF is an important contributor to Ireland's Climate and Energy Modelling framework. Read more about the National Modelling Assets for Energy and Climate Mitigation.
The projections are produced for a time horizon out to 2050. In this report, however, we focus primarily on the period to 2030, as this is the period on which the main EU and national targets and obligations, and so policies and measures, are currently focused.
Key insights
Risk of delayed achievement is now built into reported scenarios.
In the reported projections scenarios, it is no longer realistic to assume full achievement of many key Climate Action Plan targets by 2030. A transformative approach to delivering infrastructure is needed to recover a feasible path and mitigate future risk.
Achievement of all CAP targets is still projected to fall short of energy and climate obligations.
Even in a scenario where all delivery targets set out in the Climate Action Plan are fully achieved by 2030, Ireland is still projected to require more measures to meet its legally binding national and EU obligations. These must be combined with policy to meet a greater challenge by 2040.
A focus on long-term policy and energy system resilience is now required.
Ireland’s energy transition targets require unprecedented technology shifts, combined with robust energy sufficiency measures across all sectors. Avoiding wasteful energy use is essential to get back on track toward obligations beyond 2030, to reduce compliance and consumer costs, and to increase long-term resilience of the energy system.
National Energy Projections Report
This report presents the main findings of SEAI’s latest National Energy Projections. These are the result of the 2025 national energy and climate modelling cycle, which culminated in the EPA Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections published in May 2025. The National Energy Projections examine future energy use in Ireland under different scenarios and account for factors such as economic growth and the anticipated impact of Government energy policies.