The most powerful reason to upgrade your home – it will be warmer and more comfortable

The ESRI report and the 2030 targets

I will focus on one of them in this blog, that being a desktop review of ‘residential heat decarbonisation in Ireland’ undertaken by the ESRI, which provided high-level information on the path to achieving our 2030 retrofit targets. The headline numbers in this report suggesting that we had achieved only 11.5% of the deep retrofit target and 3.5% of the heat pump target to 2030 respectively. 

Questions about the retrofit trajectory

While we don’t question the ESRI numbers or percentages of retrofits and heat pumps achieved to date, there remains some questions as to the projections to 2030, with the approach adopted by the ESRI assuming a linear growth model. It appears the trajectory to target may be better served by adopting a logistic curve as described in a recent scientific paper in the Journal Energy Policy (Forecasting Ireland's retrofit trajectory: Overcoming policy gaps to meet climate action goals) by the team in the Irish Building Stock Observatory, which provides a more optimistic perspective on targets. Academics may differ on which curve best fits the data, but I guess the substantive point  is that there is an awful lot already done, but more to do to achieve the targets by 2030. 

Moving beyond payback calculations

But academic discussion on which model fits the data best is not the real reason why I am writing this blog. The ESRI report precipitated a wide range of views on retrofitting in the public arena including a number of high-profile opinion pieces in national newspapers. I felt it is important to provide some counter balance to a thesis being promulgated that retrofitting your home can be boiled down to a simple payback calculation.

It is much more than that. It is about supporting people to make their homes warm, comfortable, cheaper to run and critically, putting them on the path to decarbonisation. Or, in many cases fully decarbonised, by the installation of a heat pump. 

Energy security, affordability, and fossil fuel dependence

There is some irony that these headlines appeared at a time when the national dialogue is very much on energy costs (now and into the future) of oil and gas, as a result of the war in Iran.  For the second time in recent years our national over reliance on fossil fuels has been exposed, much to the detriment of homeowners and businesses who now have to tackle spiralling home heating and transport costs. 

Many commentators have again highlighted the urgent need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and consider new approaches to decarbonisation. Energy security and affordability are fast emerging as the key reasons to decarbonise Irish society at an even faster pace than heretofore, not to boil it down to a simple payback calculation. 

How homeowners actually retrofit: a stepwise approach

The evidence to date is that the majority of homeowners adopt a stepwise approach to retrofitting their homes and may not reach the target of a B2 in the first go. The average grant payment on the Better Energy Homes Scheme, the individual grant scheme, in 2025 was €3,000. Supporting this stepwise approach the Government have significantly ramped up the scope and scale of grants available to homeowners to help them on their journey. There is no doubt that homeowners are pivoting towards the schemes in significant numbers as referenced at the start of this blog. 

For those homeowners who want to make a more significant investment we have the One Stop Shop scheme to support them in completing a deep energy upgrade, and getting to B2 in one step. There is no doubt that retrofitting costs money, but our grants meant that homeowner are supported wherever they are on their retrofitting journey, whether going step by step or if they have the resources to do a deep retrofit in one go. 

‘No regrets’ upgrades

Also, all of the work done on retrofitting is ‘no regrets’ work, and while it may not result in a BER B2 rating there may be a significant energy uplifts for homeowners. For example, based on the standardised asset rating, a B rated home uses about half of that of a D rated home, which in turn might use half what a G rated home uses. But as alluded to in the ESRI report there, is ‘comfort taking’ which is a phenomenon where households use energy upgrades to increase indoor temperatures and improve comfort rather than fully reduce energy bills. This manifests as poorly rated homes (BER G) under heating prior to a retrofit and some better rated homes (BER A) overheating. 

However, it is important to stress that the BER is a static asset rating and is silent on the actual energy used by a homeowner, which is determined by occupancy and occupant behaviour. However as outlined above, it is important not to ignore the energy uplift of non B2 upgrades in any analysis undertaken. The singular focus on payback ‘cost’, completely ignores the range of benefits of retrofitting, the ‘value’ of the retrofit. 

The personal value of retrofitting for homeowners

The value is two pronged, the personal value to homeowners and the societal benefits (The value of a home energy upgrade). For the homeowners, an energy retrofit will generally reduce energy costs, but the precise reduction is predicated on individual behavioural choices. However, in my view an even more significant benefit is having a comfortable, warm home. Which we now know can lead to measurable positive improvements in public health outcomes as shown in the Warmth and Wellbeing Pilot Scheme. 

This was a joint initiative between SEAI, DCEE and the Department of Health aimed at improving the living conditions of vulnerable people at risk of energy poverty and living with chronic respiratory conditions. It provided free energy upgrades to eligible homes. The scheme's findings showed a direct improvement in participants' health from the energy improvements with fewer GP visits and hospital admissions, reduced medication needs and enhanced mental wellbeing (Warmth and Wellbeing Scheme). Added to these benefits is the increase in the value of the retrofitted home. 

The most recent ESRI report (from 2014 though), has shown a premium of 9.3% for A rated homes relative to D rated homes (The Value of Domestic Building Energy Efficiency - Evidence from Ireland). I understand this research has been replicated and will be published shortly and the revised study also shows uplifts in house prices following retrofits. 

The broader societal benefits

Then there are the societal benefits. Ireland has statutory greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets to achieve by 2030. These targets are baked into domestic legislation and encapsulated in European Climate Law. There is much scholarly debate as to the fines Ireland might be subject to if we were to miss these targets, but one thing most commentators are agreed on is that the cost of compliance is likely to be far less than the cost of non-compliance. Even setting aside targets and EU Climate law, reducing our reliance on fossil fuels even faster must be a number one priority given current geopolitical instability. 

The simple reality for homeowners

Having said all of this, it is homeowners up and down the country who are making the decision, with significant Government support, to improve the energy efficiency of their homes. There are many reasons why they decide to retrofit their homes, and also why they don’t. Undoubtedly for some homeowners, simple payback is one reason not to upgrade. But one of the most powerful reasons to act now was brought home to me while standing on the side of a pitch at the weekend chatting to another parent. They retrofitted their home because it was cold and now it is not!