Heating and cooling assessment
Ireland's third national comprehensive heating and cooling assessment provides an overview of supply of heating and cooling for all sectors in Ireland.
Today, approximately 90% of heat demand in Ireland is met by fossil fuels. This means the heat sector is both highly carbon‑intensive and highly exposed to international fuel price volatility. The Assessment found that existing policies and measures will only get us part of the way to a more secure, near-zero carbon heat sector. However, with the right incentives and supports, ensuring affordability and fairness the heat sector in 2050 could have less emissions, less dependence on imported fossil fuels and lower costs to society.
What's in the reports
The Assessment summarises Ireland’s current and future heating and cooling demand, technologies, policies, and models a baseline and alternative decarbonised scenario. It also includes an economic analysis of transitioning away from fossil fuels and identifies potential new measures and strategies to achieve that.
The Technical Annex provides detailed resource and technology analysis underpinning the Assessment.
SEAI's Insights document distils and interprets the key findings, highlighting the main insights, implications and opportunities for policymakers, stakeholders and the wider public, and setting out what the evidence means for Ireland’s heat transition in a clear and accessible way.
Key insights
Heating is Ireland’s biggest energy challenge and biggest climate opportunity, accounting for over one‑third of energy use and nearly a quarter of emissions.
Without stronger action, fossil fuels will still dominate Ireland’s heat system well into mid‑century.
Decarbonisation of the heat sector is the smart choice for Ireland, it will deliver lower overall costs to the State, cleaner air, and stronger energy security.
A fair transition is essential. Ireland can reach near‑zero emissions heat by 2050, but success depends on ambitious policy and supports to make alternatives to fossil fuels affordable and accessible for everyone.
Electricity and district heating will be the backbone of heat, with bioenergy, renewable fuels and hydrogen targeted where electrification isn't possible. Electrification at scale and heat networks can unlock low‑carbon solutions in homes, businesses and cities.
Through coordinating our efforts and accelerating in areas such as the electrification of heating systems in our homes, businesses and public sector — our hospitals and schools, rapidly scaling district heating in dense urban areas, and using renewable fuels in hard to electrify areas like high temperature industrial uses, we can make a big difference. Reducing the amount of heat we use is also crucial, and this is where energy efficiency measures and retrofitting become so important.
Key figures
The approach we took was to model two heat sectors 2025-2055 using
- A continuation of today’s implemented policies
- An alternative system aligned with climate neutrality
2050 based on today’s baseline
10.8MtCO2 Emissions from heating
60% heating is from fossil fuels
Not aligned with climate ambitions
2050 in an alternative scenario
1.3 MtCO2 87% less emissions from heating
<1% heating is from fossil fuels
Aligned with climate ambitions
Electrification, district heating, and renewable fuels are key
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Continue to reduce heat demand and enhance energy efficiency
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Develop and Implement a National Heat Strategy
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Electrification of heat at scale and address electricity prices
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Rapidly scale district heating
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Deploy renewable fuels for hard to electrify sectors
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Implement a managed fossil fuel phaseout with fair and just transition supports
6 Interdependent Pillars for Heat Sector Transition
SEAI is designated as the responsible body for carrying out the comprehensive assessments. The analysis for this report has been carried out by Environmental Resource Management (ERM) on behalf of SEAI and the reports have been prepared by Environmental Resource Management (ERM) and SEAI. This is Ireland's third national comprehensive assessment issued to the European Commission.