Our high energy demand system costs more than missed targets
Ireland’s energy demand is growing unsustainably, perpetuating a range of social, economic, and environmental issues, and risking failure for binding climate obligations.
Tackling the root causes of rising demand could improve quality of life across all socio-economic groups. But first, we need to understand the problem. Demand growth presents a challenge for energy and climate targets, as significantly more infrastructure is required to provide the target share of supply.
The latest SEAI National Energy Projections indicate that renewables deployment simply cannot keep up with current levels of energy demand growth. Failing to meet our EU targets could wind up costing €8-26 billion in compliance. So with this in mind, let's look at what underlies our growing demands, how it affects our daily lives, and what can be done to get us back on track.
Demand and overconsumption
Data centres
Starting with one of the fastest growing sectors: data centres. The past few decades have seen Ireland become a hub of international business – and the business of storing information is a lucrative one. We are currently home to around 89 data centres. Per-capita, this level of development is approximately 10 times higher than the European average.
Data centres are incredibly energy intensive, already consuming roughly 20% of Ireland’s electricity supply. And the growing appetite for AI embedded services will certainly see this share increase. It is troubling that many centers also use supplemental gas generators – meaning they are introducing new fossil fuel infrastructure while other sectors are working hard to phase it out. These developments attract substantial foreign direct investment, provide Government with tax receipts, local authorities with rate returns and generate profits for the corporations developing them.
However, with compliance costs on the horizon and demand pushing targets out of reach, the question of whether these developments provide a net return to society remains unanswered.
Fuel poverty
Increased levels of demand require larger and more complex energy supply systems to service them, putting upward pressure on the price we all pay for energy. We can see the consequences of high fuel prices and inequitable economic development all too clearly in the rate of fuel poverty suffered by Irish households.
Fuel poverty is a multi-faceted issue driven by high bills, inefficient homes and low incomes. It can force those effected to choose between food and fuel, and forces chronic underheating, and continued solid fuel reliance. Maintaining comfortable, healthy indoor temperatures in poorly insulated buildings comes with a high energy requirement – a burden many cannot afford.
SEAI’s Behavioural Energy and Travel Tracker (BETT) indicates that 1 in 4 people struggled to pay their last energy bill. In addition to economic hardship, this status exposes our most vulnerable populations to conditions that undermine their health and wellbeing. The best thing we can do to improve living standards is to retrofit homes with insulation and heat pumps; simultaneously reducing the residential demand. Unfortunately, even with government grants, for many, the capital costs of retrofitting and potential for increased electricity bills remain too high a barrier.
Dependence on cars
Going further, Irelands sprawling buildings are expensive to insulate and challenging to electrify but also leave individuals isolated and dependent on private cars to meet basic transport needs.
It's therefore no surprise that car dependence is the root of our high transport energy demand. We pay for this dependence with degraded air quality, congested urban spaces, time lost in traffic and the social and economic limitation of those unable to drive. These issues are targeted by the ‘Avoid-Shift-Improve' framework - but there are now more cars on our roads than ever before.
This is because expansion of public transport and active travel networks have not yet eradicated the ‘forced car ownership’ attached to dispersed building patterns combined with work commutes, school runs and other non-negotiable transport needs.
Furthermore, whilst the tide is turning and grants can help, most new cars are still powered by oil, despite reducing EV prices and increasing range.
Consumer culture
Finally, SIMI recently announced that SUVs now make up ~60% of new sales - giving us pause for thought on the energy impact of modern consumer culture. Everything we buy has an energy cost - energy consumed in its production, transportation and ultimate disposal.
As demands for consumer goods and services have risen, so too have their associated energy demand. Naturally, our level of waste generation has risen as well. Whilst we all need to take some personal accountability for these trends - we must also acknowledge that in an era of linear economy goods, fast fashion and designed obsolescence, even the most environmentally conscious consumers are struggling to make sustainable choices.
Turning the tide
These are big problems to solve, but a little joined-up thinking can go a long way. The same policies that reduce demand by investing in public transport, disincentivising fossil fuels, and increasing the density of urban housing, also promote social mobility and improved air quality.
Fewer cars and more walking and cycling could make our streets safer and more accessible, especially for our children – and provide positive health outcomes across all age ranges. Greater opportunity to live closer to our places of work and study, with less congestion on remaining commutes, could mean less time wasted in traffic.
Similarly, continuing to expand grants for home insulation, and reducing the running costs of heat pumps could go a long way in addressing rising household costs, fuel poverty, and their associated health burdens.
While, data centre developments offer definite economic temptation, they are leaving little room for sustainable growth in other sectors. On the other hand, strengthening industry regulation, and refocusing our efforts on developing the circular economy could curb excessive commercial demand while also reducing freight transport and waste generation.
Regulation promoting the right to repair, limiting designed obsolescence and favoring local businesses could do the same - all while better protecting consumers' resources. Finally, expanding investment in skill building and sustainable energy communities can empower towns, villages, and households to take control of their energy futures and embrace a culture of repair and reuse.
Aligning development with our core values
In summary, tackling unsustainable demand growth means putting our people at the centre of the energy transition. Doing so can raise living standards and pave the way for heathier, more connected communities. Accelerated renewable deployment is essential - but we must also work to recalibrate our energy-economy so that sustainable choices are easy, healthy and affordable.
This is not just about climate targets, this is about the future of life in Ireland – how we live, move and work. And the investments we make today speak volumes about the kind of future we envision. There are good things to pursue. But the longer we wait to invest, the more it will cost us - financially, socially and environmentally.
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